Expert NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Tips, Picks Week 7
We’ve still only had one mass carnage week in NFL survivor pools, which always makes it seem like another one is right around the corner. Heading into Week 7, there’s one massively popular survivor pick and three other notably popular picks. If Houston upsets Arizona, about half of the pool entries will be wiped out, so you have to ask yourself if picking the Cardinals is the right move? Below, the experts from TeamRankings discuss current win odds, expected future values, and more strategy factors to help with your Week 7 NFL survivor pool picks.
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Note: “Pick Popularity” numbers below refer to the estimated percentage of survivor pool entries nationwide that have already picked the team in question. Those numbers, as well as a team’s odds to win, can shift over the course of the week, so make sure to check our NFL survivor picks product for all the latest data plus customized pick advice for your pool.
BIG NEWS: Before we get to the picks, we’re happy to announce that we just published our first-ever e-book, Survivor Pool Strategy: What It Takes To Win. It explains all the key elements of survivor pool strategy and includes case studies on specific historical weeks and pool-winning entries. It’s free right now.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans
Pick Popularity: 48% (Most popular survivor pick)
Point Spread: -17.5
Do you think J.J. Watt is happy to be out of Houston? The Cardinals play his former team and are favored by more than 17 points with win odds over 90 percent in this one. Arizona has decent future value, and its popularity does limit its expected value to some extent this week. However, the drop-off in value from the Cardinals, Rams, Bucs to the next tier is huge.
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Using Arizona this week means you can continue to save the Rams and Bucs, who have even more weeks in the future where they project to be big favorites at low popularity.
Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team
Pick Popularity: 17%
Point Spread: -9.0
In a normal week, Green Bay would be a solid play. This isn’t a normal week. You typically don’t want to go heavy on the second-most popular pick when it isn’t one of the bigger favorites of the week. The Packers’ upside is limited because the favorites above them have both higher win odds, and two of them have low popularity.
If you’re in a pool that will eventually require you to pick a lot of teams, using the Packers might make some sense, as they would allow you to save the other top options for later in the season.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Pick Popularity: 13%
Point Spread: -7.5
Just like Green Bay, New England would be a solid play in a typical week. However, the Pats have a lower expected value this week because the favorites are more likely to win.
The case for the Patriots comes down entirely to future value savings in large pools expected to go the distance. You would trade risk this week to use a team that projects to have only one other potential spot, in Week 17 against Jacksonville, where it is useful in survivor pools.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Pick Popularity: 11%
Point Spread: -15.0
Over half of the entries in a typical pool have already used the Rams, which limits how many can use them now. They are a high-value pick if you still have them available and can afford to spend them in the Jared Goff/Matthew Stafford Trading Places Bowl.
However, they have other weeks in the future where they could also be valuable. If you are a subscriber, you could look at the Season View of our Data Grid and see who else we project to be useful in, say, Week 13, when the Rams play the Jaguars at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears
Pick Popularity: 4%
Point Spread: -13.0
What we just said about the Rams also applies to Tampa Bay. More than half of a typical pool has already used the Bucs, and they are a high-value play.
They are the second-most valuable team in survivor, so using them now is acceptable, but being able to hold them for the future will also continue to provide value and versatility.
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Every possible NFL Week 7 survivor pick has an expected value in the current week as well as a future value associated with it. Those values can vary significantly based on the characteristics of your pool, such as its size and its rules. It takes a lot of data and math to figure out which pick (or combination of picks, if you’re playing multiple entries) gives you the biggest edge to win your survivor pool. That’s why we’ve spent years building our NFL Survivor Picks product.
Our product asks you a few questions about your survivor pool, then provides customized pick advice using the latest matchup data, betting market odds, and public picking trends. It tracks the picks you’ve already made and even recommends how to split up your picks if you’re playing multiple entries. There’s nothing else like it, and it’s why our subscribers have reported nearly $3 million in survivor pool winnings since 2017.
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We invite you to try it out, and good luck in your survivor pools this week!