Benner Cycle Predicts 2023-2026, Bullish Market

Benner Cycle is a Market Cycle Theory

Samuel Benner was a farmer from the 1800s who wanted to understand how market cycles worked.

In 1875, he published a book forecasting business and commodity prices.

He identified years of panic, years of good times, and years of hard times.

if you look into his chart, there are major and minor cycles, as per the chart the period 2023-2026 is shown as a bullish period.

Please note the upper peaks of years 1927,1945,1981,1999,2019,2035,2053 are indicative of market downturns, which look come true to date.

Please note the lower peak years of 1924,1931,1942,1951,1958,1985,1996,2005,2012,2023,2032,2039,2050,2059 are indicative of a bullish period starting from this year for a few years till the upper peak of the minor cycle, for example, 2023-2026 indicates the bullish period, however, the downturn may start in 2026.

Samuel Benner Market Cycle prediction for 2023-2026 period

It has been claimed that the Benner cycle accurately predicted the ups and downs of the market for more than 100 plus years.

Even forecasting the great depression, WW2, the dot com bubble, and the COVID-19 pandemic market crash.

However, it’s important to note that while these cycles can provide some insight into potential market trends, they should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions.

Always consider multiple factors and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Fed Meeting June 2023 Favorably Anticipated

Good News from Fed Meeting? let’s analyze

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its June 2023 meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, June 13-14. The meeting was widely expected to result in a pause in the Fed’s rate-hiking campaign, and that is exactly what happened. The FOMC announced that it would hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 5% to 5.25%. The decision was unanimous.

In a statement released after the Fed meeting, the FOMC said that it was “closely monitoring” economic developments and that it would “continue to assess the appropriate stance of monetary policy” in light of incoming data. The statement also said that the FOMC was “prepared to take further action as needed” to bring inflation under control.

The decision to pause the rate-hiking campaign was a significant change in course for the Fed. The central bank had been raising rates aggressively since March 2022 in an effort to combat inflation, which had reached a 40-year high. However, the Fed’s aggressive approach to tightening monetary policy had begun to weigh on economic growth. The US economy contracted in the first quarter of 2023, and there are growing concerns that the economy could fall into recession.

The Fed meeting and the decision to pause the rate-hiking campaign is a sign that the central bank is acknowledging the risks to economic growth. However, the Fed also made it clear that it is still committed to bringing inflation under control. The FOMC statement said that the Fed “expects inflation to decline in the months ahead” and that it is “confident” that it can achieve its goal of 2% inflation “over the longer run.”

The Fed meeting and the decision to pause the rate-hiking campaign are likely to have a significant impact on financial markets. Interest rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future, which could boost stock prices and encourage borrowing. However, the Fed’s decision could also lead to slower economic growth and higher unemployment. It remains to be seen how the markets will react to the Fed’s new policy stance.

Image Credit

me, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Recession: What to do?

Recession predictions

There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen

Above is a Lenin quote, a perfect statement for doomsday predictors.

We live for decades and then die one day, and looks human predicament matches the above statement.

I believe death is bigger than anything, so if we are reading doomsday predictions on financial markets and market crashes, don’t worry be happy, they are not predicting death to the earth.

A lot of predictions about how markets will crash in the near future.

Not sure how much of the entire population on earth gets affected, threatening life!!

We know there are several predictions about doomsday on Earth also!!

However, the next day we woke up normal!!

“Worry” kills more people than anything else!!!

Don’t worry, be happy

Randomness is the fundamental principle of the universe, there are too many variables to control, and maybe we think we are in control, but it is never the case…

Also please check “Happy Life

Upcoming recession: Interesting fact

An interesting fact about the upcoming recession

The chances of the world economy getting into recession look high, recent news from WTO looks making it more possible.

World trade in all goods is projected to slow sharply next year under the weight of high energy prices, and other factors like war-related, rising interest rates.

Total exports and imports of goods are likely to grow by just 1% in 2023, the World trade organization said on Wednesday, That would be down from the previous forecast of 3.4% and its forecast of 3.5% for this year, this looks pointing towards upcoming recession.

Source: https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres22_e/pr909_e.htm

Please check “Facts about Inflation

Facts about inflation

Facts about Inflation

I believe this should be a topic taught to children from middle school, and everybody should be aware of how it can affect their lives in the future.

Obviously, the most affected people are middle-class and poor people.

Below are some facts about inflation.

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Recession
  • Inflation leads to a recession.
  • Inflation caused governments to fall and dictators to take control, which had disastrous consequences for the world, for example, Germany.
  • It erodes the wealth of households like slow poison.
  • Unemployment rates drop before inflation starts.

Watch the video Facts about Inflation

Worst Shoe Shortage is Yet To Come

Experts Say the Worst Shoe Shortage is Yet To Come – Yahoo Lifestyle

Source yahoo.com

Global supply chain slowdowns are set to impact everyone this holiday season, from retailers to consumers.
The issues are particularly plaguing the footwear industry. For example, a global shortage of rubber and plastic, which are essential in the production of sneakers, has made it difficult for factories to produce enough products to meet demand, a phenomenon exacerbated by labor shortages and factory shutdowns abroad in China, Malaysia, and Vietnam. On top of material shortages, factory shutdowns, high freight costs, and port congestion are making it tough for retailers to secure enough inventory.

Consumers are aware of these issues. According to KPMG’s consumer pulse survey for the holiday season of 2021, more than 50% of 1,000 respondents expressed concern about shortages in stores and shipping delays. 61% said they planned to start shopping for the holidays in October to prepare for out-of-stocks.
Ahead of the holiday shopping season, I embarked on a footwear shopping spree across seven stores in New York City. On the wholesale and off-price side, I stopped by Foot Locker, DSW, and Famous Footwear. On the brand-owned DTC side, I stopped by Nike, Ugg, Skechers, and Vans.
Overall, I did not observe any notable inventory shortages in any store. According to analysts and experts, there are multiple reasons why this was my experience.
Since most inventory in the brand-owned stores is kept in store rooms out of customers’ view, it was difficult to tell if there were any inventory shortages with a quick glance. However, at the Vans store, I inquired about a few top-selling shoes, such as the white slip-ones that are reportedly flying off shelves in the wake of Netflix’s Squid Game. They were still in stock.
Shoshy Ciment/Footwear News
According to BMO Capital Markets Analyst Simeon Siegel, if a company has limited inventory, it will likely allocate products to its most important channels and markets first. New York is home to many flagship stores and a thriving shopping environment, which could account for my rather pleasant shopping experience. Shoppers in other less crucial geographies or stores might have a different experience.
Siegel also said that while stores may have a physical product, scarcity might be present in the lack of compelling products available.
“Newness sells out fast and it sells out at full price (or higher),” he said. “Excess can sit around. Just seeing boxes doesn’t guarantee you are seeing the boxes that will sell.”
Shoshy Ciment/Footwear News
This type of scarcity will likely be most present in a chain like DSW or Famous Footwear explained Liza Amlani, principal and founder of consulting company Retail Strategy Group.
Still, when I visited DSW and Famous Footwear, the shelves were overflowing with boxes of inventory. According to Amlani, while some stores might appear to be fully stocked, much of this inventory could be excess or older. At the same time, some stores such as DSW have been proactively working to diversify sourcing to maintain products in stores, which could also account for my experience.
Moving forward, Amlani anticipates that the truck driver and labor shortage will further delay products and create more of a visible shortage in stores.
“Shelves will be empty,” she said. “I assure you.”
Shoshy Ciment/Footwear News
Other experts also suggested that the worst of the shortages are yet to come.
“When it comes to the supply chain, we are always looking ahead,” said Bindiya Vakil, CEO of global supply chain monitoring company Resilinc. “The shortage we’re talking about is not related to the shoes that are in the store or even the ones en route; it’s the supply behind this layer.”
Given that sneakers aren’t technically essential items, these shortages won’t be as dramatic as previous shortages of toilet paper and eggs that resulted from panic-buying. But fewer shoes overall will likely lead to increased prices for high-demand pairs. Shoe prices already increased 6.5% in September, compared with the year-ago period.
“By increasing the price, you automatically have fewer people buying the shoes,” Vakil said.
Despite all the hoopla regarding the supply chain this year, shortages are not a new concept for the footwear industry.
According to Matt Powell, the senior sports industry adviser for The NPD Group Inc., port congestion has been a constant theme for the last five years. And while the impact will be more visible in the spring, these delays will not be the death knell to the industry.
“I see this as an aggravation, and will not have a material impact on the business,” Powell said.

Please check “Who controls our mind really

Link.